What will the new parliamentary convocation look like?

 

18 electoral lists participated in the parliamentary elections held in December 2023 - the same number as in the previous elections in 2022 (Table 1).

Table 1: Overview of the number of electoral lists participating in parliamentary elections in the past 11 years and the number of electoral lists that won mandates

 

Preliminary structure of the future convocation of the National Assembly of the Republic of Serbia in 2024.

 

Out of 18 candidate lists, mandates were won by five of them, along with five election lists of minority parties for which the rule of the so-called "natural threshold" applies. Therefore, mandates will be awarded to candidates with a total of 10 election lists (Table 2).

Table 2: Preliminary overview of electoral lists that won mandates in the National Assembly after the parliamentary elections in 2023

When it comes to the party structure, according to the data provided in the election lists, the Assembly will include representatives of 24 parties and one group of citizens (group of citizens "We - The Voice of the People, Prof. Branimir Nestorović, PhD").

Individually, the Serbian Progressive Party will have the most MPs (110), followed by the People's Movement of Serbia (17), while the Freedom and Justice Party (16) is in third place (Table 3).

Table 3: Preliminary overview of the political structure of electoral lists that won mandates after the parliamentary elections in 2023, and the number of mandates won by each political party or movement

As far as the gender structure of the future convocation is concerned, the less represented gender, women, did not reach the desired 40 percent participation, although it is close to that number (Table 4).

Table 4: Preliminary gender structure of the XIV parliamentary convocation

The lists with a small number of mandates have the largest deviation from the 60:40 ratio. Both mandates of Usama Zukorlić's list - United for Justice - Party of Justice and Reconciliation - Bosnians of Sandžak, Tomislav Žigmanov - Democratic Union of Croats in Vojvodina, as well as one total mandate each of the list of the Russian Party - Slobodan Nikolić and The Political Struggle of Albanians Continues - Šaip Kamberi went to men, so the percentage of women in these lists is zero, while of the two MPs from the Party of Democratic Action (SDA) Sandžak list - Sulejman Ugljanin DMD, one man and one woman, and they reached the highest percentage of representation of the less represented sex, half.

Regarding the lists that won more than 10 mandates, the lists Miloš Jovanović PhD - Hope for Serbia - Serbian Coalition HOPE - National Democratic Alternative - New Democratic Party of Serbia (New DSS) - Movement for the Restoration of the Kingdom of Serbia (POKS) - Vojislav Mihailović and We - The Voice of the People, Prof. Branimir Nestorović, PhD, who have a gender ratio of practically 70:30, especially if you bear in mind that the list of the Hope coalition started the previous convocation with 60:40, and ended with 80:20, after a series of resignations of female MPs, whose places were taken by male MPs. (Table 5).

Table 5: Gender structure by electoral lists that won mandates in 2023

In terms of age structure, the majority of future MPs were born between 1970 and 1979, and the total average age is 49 years. There are five male and female MPs under the age of 30, which is significantly less than in the previous convocation, when there were 14 (while the average age was 47).  

The oldest MPs of the new convocation will be Nada Macura, Stojan Radenović and Jovan Kolundžija (SNS), born in 1948, and the youngest, Nastasja Baković (Against Violence) and Marko Milošević (SPS/JS), born in 1999 (Table 6).

Table 6: Preliminary age structure of the XIV parliamentary convocation

On average, the oldest list is the Russian Party - Slobodan Nikolić, which has only one MP who is 67 years old. The next list is the Political Struggle of Albanians Continues - Šaip Kamberi, which also has one deputy who is 60, and then the list We - The Voice of the People, Prof. Branimir Nestorović, PhD, with an average age of almost 58 years. The "youngest" is the list of Usama Zukorlić - United for Justice - Party of Justice and Reconciliation - Bosniaks of Sandžak, Tomislav Žigmanov - Democratic Union of Croats in Vojvodina, with two MPs, average age 34.5 years (Table 7).

Table 7: Age structure according to electoral lists that won mandates in 2023

As far as the regional distribution is concerned, the largest number of both male and female deputies reside in the territory of Belgrade, a total of almost 43 percent. Next in terms of representation is the South Bačka District, with 8 percent, while the third place is the Nišava District, with just over 4 percent. As many as 16 districts are represented by less than 5 members of parliament, that is, less than 2 percent. The districts that do not have their own representatives in the new convocation of the Assembly are two districts from the area of Kosovo and Metohija - Kosovo-Pomoravska and Prizren (Table 8). Compared to the previous convocation, in the list of regional distribution, there is a change in the third place, because then Raška District was in this position, which fell to fifth place in this convocation. Also, compared to the last convocation, a significant decrease in the percentage of the South Bačka District (from 12 to eight percent) is noticeable, but, regardless of this decrease, this district kept the same position on the list compared to the last convocation. 

Table 8: Preliminary regional structure of the XIV convocation

Apart from the total number of MPs per district, for a better understanding of the representation of the district in the parliament, the number of inhabitants whose local problems and needs can best be understood and represented by MPs from the same district is also important, i.e. the ratio between the number of inhabitants of the district and the number of MPs from of that district, although the current electoral system foresees that the whole of Serbia is one electoral unit and that each MP is a representative of all citizens of Serbia. If the number of citizens in each district is also considered, Belgrade is again in the first position, with one representative for every 15,740 citizens, while on the other hand, in the Morava District, one representative comes for as many as 94,946 citizens.

Citizens of Pčinj and Zaječar Districts, for example, therefore have a better indirect representation based on the number of inhabitants than the total number of MPs shows, while in South Bačka and Nišava Districts citizens are represented worse in this sense.

For districts from the area of Kosovo and Metohija, Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia does not have data on the number of citizens, so this kind of analysis is not possible (Table 9).

 

Table 9: Overview of the preliminary regional structure of the XIV convocation with the number of inhabitants by region

The list We – The Voice of the People, prof. Branimir Nestorović Ph.D, has the largest percentage of MPs from Belgrade (92%), while the minority lists do not have a single MP or female MP residing in the territory of Belgrade (Table 10).

Table 10: Regional structure by electoral lists that won mandates in 2023

When it comes to previous parliamentary experience, 98 male and female MPs will find themselves in the parliamentary benches for the first time, which is almost 40 percent of the total number. MPs Veroljub Arsić, Igor Bečić and Aleksandar Čotrić (SNS) have the largest number of mandates so far, and this will be their tenth mandate in the Parliament of Serbia (Table 11).

Table 11: Preliminary structure by the total number of previous mandates of deputies of the XIV convocation

Looking at the lists, according to the average number of previous mandates, the most experienced list is that of Ivica Dačić - Prime Minister of Serbia, with an average of more than three previous mandates per MP, while this is the first mandate for the only MP from the Russian Party - Slobodan Nikolić (Table 12).

Table 12: Preliminary structure according to the average number of previous mandates of deputies of the XIV convocation by lists

And finally, when it comes to the professions of male and female MPs, most of them are in the field of law and economics, and in the third place being education and science. There are no unemployed or students among the male and female members of parliament, and 9 are retired (Table 13).

Table 13: Preliminary structure by occupational areas of the XIV convocation